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The research relevance is predefined by the fact that the European financial market has suffered a direct negative impact due to the russian aggression and violation of the territorial integrity of Ukraine. All these processes are accompanied by several previously formed and unfavourable trends for socio-economic and financial development, which have become even more severe due to the hostilities. In particular, COVID-19, environmental degradation, rising inflation, deglobalization, insufficient social development of individual countries, as well as fuel and food shortages. The research aims to conclude a comparative analysis of financial policy in European countries and individual countries of the Balkan Peninsula, as well as substantiation of the financial risk management features and the formation of a forecast model of economic stabilization. To achieve the set objectives, scientific methods were used, including analysis method, analogy method, and modelling method. The article analyses expert reports and the results of scientific research on the current state of the financial market and monetary policy in Europe as a result of the russian-Ukrainian war, in particular in the Balkans and Kosovo. The analogy of the directions of financial policy in the period before the russian invasion of the territory of Ukraine with the period of direct aggression of the russian federation is conducted. The fundamental reasons for changes in pricing policy, in particular pricing mechanisms, are characterized. The determining factors of financial risks, tools for assessing the consequences, as well as generalization of management methods for their reduction and elimination in the future are substantiated. The directions of European financial support aimed at the defence sector and socio-economic needs are considered. The practical value of the work is that the conceptual model of strategic development of the European financial market in the context of stabilization processes of international financial policy, as well as food and energy security was formed Copyright © The Author(s).
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We examine the risk minimization utility of Islamic stock and Sukuk (bond) indices by studying their linkages against traditional global counterparts. We first employ an asymmetric power ARCH-based ADCC model on an extended dataset employed by Kenourgios et al. (2016). Our sample ranges from July 2007 to June 2021 covering the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the European Sovereign Debt Crisis (ESDC), and the COVID-19 pandemic. Econometric tests suggest strong evidence of coupling in the bulk of Islamic equity indices. A handful of emerging market indices constitute exceptions. Qualitatively similar results emerge from time–frequency analysis via wavelet tools, revealing pervasive coupling in both returns and volatility series. The linkages are scale-dependent in only a few pairs. In contrast, Sukuk indices are uncoupled from their global fixed income counterparts and relevant risky debt portfolios. In sum, the risk-return characteristics of Islamic equities (especially in developed economies) remain coupled to major global benchmarks and therefore are unlikely to appeal as safe haven candidates. The converse applies to Sukuk, which promises potential portfolio diversification benefits and safe haven status in ‘normal' and crisis periods.
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When societies are struck by large-scale disruptions, biases in citizens' personal risk assessment and the spread of misinformation are often reason for concern. As a contribution, this study aims to link individuals' biased perceptions of self-other asymmetry—i.e., optimistic bias in risk assessment and third-person perception regarding undesired media influence—to different patterns of news consumption and misinformation perceptions. To study these phenomena, we distributed an online survey in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic among citizens from the US, the UK, the Netherlands, and Germany (N = 1,912). The findings offer consistent support for bias beliefs: Compared to others, citizens from all four countries perceived themselves as less vulnerable to health and financial risk—i.e., optimistic bias—as well as the influence of misinformation—i.e., third-person perception. In a next step, we provide novel insights into how general news use can be associated with lower optimistic bias regarding perceived personal risk, while intentional exposure to issue-specific information and misinformation perceptions can relate to higher optimistic bias and third-person perceptions. These relationships were found to differ across individual countries. Overall, this study provides novel insights into how media use and perceptions relate to perceived invulnerability to potential harm, which, in turn, might impede pro-social intentions during crises surrounded by the omnipresence of misinformation. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Mass Communication & Society is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)
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An environment of turbulence in the market in recent years and increasing inflation, mainly as a result of the post-COVID period and the ongoing military operation in Ukraine, represents a significant financial risk factor for many companies, which has a negative impact on managerial decisions. A lot of enterprises are forced to look for ways to effectively assess the riskiness of the projects that they would like to implement in the future. The aim of the article is to present a new approach for companies with which to assess the riskiness of projects. The basis of this is the use of the new Crystal Ball software tool and the effective application of the Monte Carlo method. The article deals with the current issues of investment and financial planning, which are the basic pillars for effective management decisions with the goal of sustainability. The article has verified a methodology that allows companies to make effective investment decisions based on assessing the level of risk. For practical application, the Monte Carlo method was chosen, as it uses sensitivity analysis and simulations, which were evaluated for two types of projects. Both simulations were primarily carried out based on a deterministic approach through traditional mathematical models. Subsequently, stochastic modeling was performed using the Crystal Ball software tool. As a result of the sensitivity analysis, two tornado graphs were created, which display risk factors according to the degree of their influence on the criterion value. The output of this article is the presentation of these new approaches for financial decision-making within companies.
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The aim of the article is to compare the impact of selected business risks on the threat of bankruptcy of small or medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) before COVID-19 and during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. 688 SMEs from the business environment of the Slovak Republic participated in the research. Business risks, such as market, financial, personnel, operational and strategic risk were examined. Correlation and regression analysis were used to evaluate formulated hypotheses. The results yielded several significant findings. The three most important business risks before COVID-19 include market, financial and personnel risk according to entrepreneurs. Financial risk is the most significant business risk affecting the threat of bankruptcy in the SME segment in the Slovak Republic after the outbreak of COVID-19. The company's financial performance indicators and the ability of respondents to manage financial risk influence the threat of the company's bankruptcy more strongly during the pandemic. The findings are important for state organizations in mitigating the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the business environment of SMEs in the Slovak Republic, as well as for entrepreneurs themselves and organizations that help SMEs. © 2022, Academic Conferences and Publishing International Limited. All right reserved.
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The financial industry is a high-risk industry. Once the financial industry risk happen, it will affect the economic development. Ensuring the safe, efficient and steady operation of finance and preventing systemic financial risks are the urgent needs of China's opening up to the outside world and building a well-off society in an all-round way. Stable and efficient economic development is the basis of financial risk prevention and control, which is the inherent requirement of high-quality economic development. Strengthening macro-prudential management has become the core content of financial regulatory reform in major international organizations and economies after the international coronavirus outbreak and preventing systemic financial risks is the fundamental goal of macro-prudential management. This paper takes the assessment and monitoring of China's systemic financial risks as the research object, and proposes an assessment algorithm of systemic financial risks based on risk data fuzzy clustering analysis. The established financial systemic risk measurement method can identify risks to a certain extent, deeply understand the nature, root and key areas of systemic financial risks, and build a long-term mechanism to prevent and resolve systemic financial risks. © 2022 IEEE.
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Purpose: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused hundreds of thousands of people to suffer severe illness or die and has had severe effects on individuals' financial well-being as well. Unfortunately, it is very likely that the pandemic has had a disproportionate effect, particularly on vulnerable and underserved groups, including immigrants in the USA. This study aims to examine the association between perceived health risk and perceived financial risk attributable to COVID-19, and focuses on their heterogeneous effects depending upon immigrant status. Design/methodology/approach: The study used the Understanding America Study (UAS) COVID-19 National Survey data collected from April 2020 to July 2021. Sets of ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and fixed effects regression analyses were conducted on the perceived risk COVID-19 poses on households' finances. The main focal variables of interest were immigrant status and perceived risk of COVID-19 infection and death. Findings: The results showed that the correlation between health risk and perceived financial risk was much higher among first- and second-generation immigrants. Surprisingly, various types of government aid did not have a consistent and significant effect on the recipients' perception of the risk that COVID-19 poses to their household finances. Originality/value: This study is one of the few attempts to empirically examine the association between perceived health risk and financial risk during the COVID-19 pandemic by focusing on the heterogeneity by immigrant status. The authors used an appropriate methodology that considered the panel structure of the UAS COVID-19 National Survey's data. The study provides important implications for researchers and policymakers related to immigrants' financial well-being. © 2023, Emerald Publishing Limited.
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PurposeSince the COVID-19 occurred, large-scale social restriction (Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar-PSBB) has taken place, and that has led family members to carry out their activities at home. This condition impacts both directly and indirectly the intention of house purchase, as a result of lifestyle changes during the pandemic. A house now serves as a residence, office, as well as school. This study aims to determine the influences of physical attributes, neighborhood preferences, financial concerns, financial risk preferences, health risk preferences, and COVID anxiety towards house purchase intention.Design/methodology/approachThis associative study was carried out from February to May 2021 in the residents of Surabaya aged 20–34 years old as prospective first-home buyers, with relatives at risk of contracting COVID-19 (belong in the susceptible group or live with a family member who is prone to the COVID-19 virus, including having a comorbidity, elderly (= 60 years old), having a low immune system or autoimmune disease, obese). Data were gathered using online questionnaires from which 226 respondents were acquired. Data were analyzed using the PLS-SEM 3.0 technique.FindingsThe results showed that physical attributes, neighborhood preferences, financial concerns, financial risk preferences, and COVID anxiety significantly influence house purchase intention. Furthermore, neighborhood preferences, financial risk preferences, and COVID anxiety as moderating variables also significantly influence house purchase intention.Practical implicationsThis study was carried out in Surabaya as the second-largest city after Jakarta with the highest COVID-19 mortality rate, which is useful for exploring the lifestyle changes and property demand as a result of the pandemic;Developers gain a business opportunity by offering properties that are multifunction and health-oriented.Originality/valueThe COVID-19 pandemic becomes a trigger for a change in the property market that needs to be studied further.
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By employing two systemic risk methods, the marginal expected shortfall (MES) and the component expected shortfall (CES), this paper measures the systemic risk level of all sectors in China's financial market from 2014 to 2022;thereby, it researches the total effect of sectoral systemic risk using a panel event study model during the three main emergency crisis events. Moreover, two nonparametric methods are utilized, the Wilcoxon signed rank sum test and the bootstrap Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, in order to investigate the changes in individual effects and the dominant ranks of sectoral systemic risk. The empirical results show that (1) the mean values and volatilities of CES and MES of all sectors have a higher level of magnitude in the extreme risk status than those in the normal risk status;(2) by comparing the total effects of three crisis events, we find that different from the continuous shock effect caused by two other events, sectoral systemic risk has a hysteresis effect on the entire market after the outbreak of COVID-19;(3) the long-term and short-term individual effects of sectoral systemic risk in all sectors are different from each other during three events;and (4) the dominance tests of MES are more sensitive and thus better demonstrate the changes in the rankings of sectoral systemic risk than the dominant tests of CES during the emergency crisis events. © 2023 by the authors.
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PurposeUsing ethnicity as our point of focus, the authors consider the dynamics of the demand for bank loans, and the willingness of banks to supply them, as the UK economy entered the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 with a particular focus on potential behavioural differences on the demand-side and discrimination on the supply-side. In doing so we directly address crisis induced financial concerns and how they played out in the context of ethnicity.Design/methodology/approachUsing the most recent ten quarterly waves of the UK SME Finance Monitor survey the authors consider whether ethnicity of the business owner impacts on the decision to apply for bank loans in the first instance. The authors then question whether ethnicity influences the banks decision to meet or reject the request for a bank loan.FindingsThe authors' pre-COVID-19 results show that there were no ethnic differences in loan application and success rates. During COVID-19, both white and ethnic business loan application rates rose significantly, but the scale of this increase was greater for ethnic businesses. The presence of government 100% guaranteed lending also increased general loan success rates, but again the scale of this improvement was greater for ethnic businesses.Research limitations/implicationsThe authors show very clearly that differences in the willingness of banks to supply loans to SMEs relate very explicitly to firm specific characteristics and ethnicity either plays no additional role or actually leads to improved loan outcomes. The data is for the UK and for a very unique COVID time which may mean that wider generalisability is unwise.Practical implicationsEthnic business owners should not worry about lending discrimination or be discouraged from applying for loans.Social implicationsThe authors identify at worst no lending discrimination and at best positive ethnic discrimination.Originality/valueThis is one of the largest COVID-19 period studies into the financing of ethnic businesses.
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Due to operating in the mining and iron sectors with fierce competition and encountering more financial obstacles compared to larger enterprises, SMEs (small and medium-sized enterprises) become more likely to face business failures, have lower financial performance and have high financial risk. To overcome those financial impediments and become more competitive against their rivals, social media usage might be a solution. This is because even under the conditions of the covid-19 pandemic, social media has also stimulated online purchasing behaviours of customers and has been used as an effective tool by SMEs for marketing purposes. However, SMEs' usage of these channels might differ depending on the countries where they are located, so their impacts on financial obstacles might be different. In this regard, this research examines whether the impacts of social media usage on the financial problems of SMEs differ depending on their location. To achieve this goal, the researchers employ an online survey and direct it to the executives of 1156 Czech, Slovakian and Hungarian SMEs. The researchers apply Ordinal Logistic Regression with the Logit function in SPSS statistical tool for analyzing purposes. The results confirm the fact that while differences do not exist among countries regarding the impact of social media usage on business failures, the effects of social media usage on financial performance and financial risk differ between Hungarian and Czech-Slovakian SMEs. Czech and Slovakian SMEs show similar attitudes in all of the analyzed variables. © 2022 by the authors.
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Many companies use video advertising during the covid pandemic. Video advertising has a positive effect on the industry but also has a negative impact (inherent risk) such as time, physical, financial, and social risk. Video advertising content generally follows information quality characteristics to achieve the maximum result. This study will explore on how Video Advertising's Information Quality Content (VAIQC) affects social media risk, customer trust and intention to buy. The study was conducted using the Structural Equation Model and Partial Lease Square (SEM-PLS) techniques with 246 respondents. Several factors have a significant influence, such as customer trust on intention to buy, financial risk on intention to buy, Video's advertising information quality content (VAIQC) on customer trust, financial risk, physical risk, social risk and time risk. This study also looks at the effect of gender on the research model. The results of this research are very useful for the industry and future digital advertising development. © 2022 IEEE.
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PurposeThis paper aims to identify the direct impact of fund style drift on the risk of stock price collapse and the intermediary mechanism of financial risk, so as to better protect the interests of minority investors.Design/methodology/approachThis paper takes all the non-financial companies on the Chinese Growth Enterprise Market from 2011 to 2020 as study object and selects securities investment funds of their top ten circulation stocks to study the relationship between fund style drift and stock price crash risk.FindingsFund style drift is likely to add stock price crash risk. Financial risk is positively correlated with stock price crash risk. Fund style drift affects stock price crash risk via the mediating effect of financial risk, and fund style drift and financial risk have a marked impact on the stock price crash risk of non-state enterprises, yet a non-significant impact on that of state-owned enterprises.Originality/valueThis paper links fund style drift with stock price crash risk in an exploratory manner and enriches the study perspectives of relationship between institutional investors' behaviors and stock price crash risk, thus enjoying certain academic value. On the one hand, it furnishes a new approach to the academic frontier issue concerning financial risk and stock price crash risk, and proves that financial risk is positively correlated with stock price crash risk. On the other hand, it regards financial risk as a mediating variable of fund style drift for stock price crash risk and further explores different influencing mechanism of institutional investors' behaviors.
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Central banks and regulators increasingly consider climate-related financial risks (CRFR) relevant to their responsibilities for maintaining financial stability and using daily data from 2016 to 2021 for China. Specifically, we used the S&P Green Bond Price Index, the Solactive Global Solar Price Index, the Solactive Global Wind Price Index, and the S&P Global Clean Energy and Carbon Price Index as our data set. We use the TVP-VAR method to probe return spillovers and interconnectedness. We test several portfolio strategies, including the minimum variance portfolio, the minimum correlation portfolio, and the more recent minimum connectedness portfolio. However, the evolving policy structure for dealing with CRFR has generally focused on market-based solutions that attempt to address perceived data gaps that preclude the appropriate pricing of CRFR, even though CRFR is thought to have certain distinctive features. Disclosure and openness fall within this category. We propose limiting the approach's influence since CRFR is characterized by extreme attainability. A 'precautionary' financial policy option is presented as an alternative, providing a conceptual foundation for justifying more aggressive financial policy intervention in the present to better cope with these long-term dangers.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Carbon , Humans , Investments , Policy , ChinaABSTRACT
Introduction: Based on event system theory, this study analyzed the influence of the event strength of major public health outside the organization on work connectivity behavior. Methods: The study collected data from 532 employees on their psychological status and working style during the COVID-19 pandemic through an online questionnaire survey. Results: The results show that driven by financial risk perception, female employees are more willing to pay work connectivity behavior than male employees and unmarried employees are more willing to pay work connectivity behavior than married employees. The risk perception of employees aged 28-33 has the greatest impact on workplace behavior. The impact of financial risk perception on behavior of employees without children is much higher than that of employees with children. The influence of financial risk perception and social risk perception on their behavior of employees with master's degree is much higher than that of health risk perception, but the workplace behavior of employees with doctor's degree is mainly affected by health risk perception. Discussion: The novelty of the Corona Virus Disease event has a negative influence on work connectivity duration. The criticality, disruption of the Corona Virus Disease event has a positive influence on work connectivity duration. The criticality of the Corona Virus Disease event has a positive influence on work connectivity frequency. Employees' social risk perception, financial risk perception and health risk perception has a positive influence on the work connectivity duration and work connectivity frequency.
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The panic caused by COVID-19 and the stagnation of business activities induced the continuous breeding of China's financial risks. This paper considers the COVID-19 and economic indexes as nodes to establish the Bayesian topology of financial risk. The liquidity, sovereign, and stock market risks are mainly considered to evaluate the financial risk. Based on the risk characteristics, the central interval trapezoidal possibility functions are designed, then the grey clustering model is used to classify the financial risk into four different levels. The possibility distribution of financial risk levels under different COVID-19 index levels is inferenced through the Bayesian network. Finally, each node's monthly time series data from October 2019 to May 2021 is used to learn by NETICA software, and the conditional probability of each node and the possibility of financial risk are deduced. It is concluded that liquidity risk and sovereign risk are more sensitive to COVID-19, while the stock market risk is not very sensitive to it.
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As health service delivery shifts from institutions to the home, greater care responsibilities are being imposed on unpaid caregivers. However, gaps remain concerning how these responsibilities are contributing to caregivers' financial risk. This study describes results from an online survey conducted in late-2020 in Ontario, Canada, about the financial risks of unpaid, homebased caregiving throughout the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Among 190 caregivers, salient findings include difficulties paying for care expenses after the pandemic was declared than before (P = .002); more caregivers retiring or becoming unemployed during the pandemic than before (P = .013); and a significant relationship between paying out-of-pocket for a home care worker and experiencing a decrease in the availability of such support during the pandemic (P = .029). Overall, the financial stressors of caregiving during the pandemic contributed negatively to caregivers' mental health, with 64.2% noting could be partly offset by greater government and employment-based assistance in managing care expenses and productivity losses. Findings from this study will better inform policies that aim to protect unpaid caregivers from financial risk in pandemic recovery efforts and beyond. Results may also be useful in other welfare states where unpaid caregivers provide the majority of home care services.
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This research uses a hybrid systemic risk indicator (rSYR) to measure the systemic financial risk of China's banking industry from 2009 to 2019 and combines rSYR with sSYR (new standardized rSYR) to more accurately determine systemic important banks. We also forecast systemic risk in the next period, finding that large-scale banks (such as ICBC, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and China Merchants Bank) have high systemic importance. After eliminating the impact of scale, we then pay attention to the possibility of systemic risk brought by some smaller banks (such as Huaxia Bank and Everbright Bank). Through the prediction of systemic risk in the next six months, we also find out that the possibility of systemic risk caused by possible capital shortage brought by Agricultural Bank of China, Ping An Bank, Bank of China and Everbright Bank is more obvious, which is worth paying greater attention.
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The subprime crisis and the COVID-19 crisis have severely impacted the development of global financial stability, which arouses scholars' thinking about the financial risk. Clarifying the contagion mechanism and spatial spillover effect of financial risk under the subprime crisis and the COVID-19 crisis is of great significance for preventing and controlling financial risk. This paper explores and compares the main contagion mechanism, contagion channels, and spatial spillover effects of financial risk during the subprime crisis and the COVID-19 crisis by using the dynamic Spatial Dubin Model. The results show that the transnational contagion mechanism of financial risk during the subprime crisis is the monsoon effect. The inflation rate has a positive spatial spillover effect on financial risk. During the COVID-19 crisis, the transnational contagion mechanism of financial risk is the spillover effect. Net exports and stock market returns have positive spatial spillover effects on financial risk. Financial risk is mainly transmitted across borders through commodity prices during the subprime crisis, while during the COVID-19 crisis, it's through trade exchanges and financial capital flows. In addition, the spatial contagion intensity of financial risks during the COVID-19 crisis is higher than during the subprime crisis. This paper provides experience and reference for countries to formulate financial risk prevention plans. © 2022 ACM.
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This research uses a hybrid systemic risk indicator (rSYR) to measure the systemic financial risk of China's banking industry from 2009 to 2019 and combines rSYR with sSYR (new standardized rSYR) to more accurately determine systemic important banks. We also forecast systemic risk in the next period, finding that large-scale banks (such as ICBC, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and China Merchants Bank) have high systemic importance. After eliminating the impact of scale, we then pay attention to the possibility of systemic risk brought by some smaller banks (such as Huaxia Bank and Everbright Bank). Through the prediction of systemic risk in the next six months, we also find out that the possibility of systemic risk caused by possible capital shortage brought by Agricultural Bank of China, Ping An Bank, Bank of China and Everbright Bank is more obvious, which is worth paying greater attention.